Predictions - Realistic or Pessimistic? by Malcolm Bell

Thank you to those businesses who left comments on the website relating to the State of Tourism report that we published in last months email, the online poll results reveal that 80% of businesses found it to be useful / of some use.

I have read all of the comments with interest and addressed some of the issues raised below including how we take things forward.

[Click here to read the comments left on the State of Tourism Report]

Having been in charge of South West Tourism for ten years I have learnt many lessons, especially about when is the right time to be optimistic, realistic and occasionally pessimistic.

I have also leant one particular lesson since my time here and that is perception is the truth, regardless of the actual truth. Changing perceptions is not easy and the longer they are held the harder they are to change.

So what has this got to do with tourism in 2009?

Quite simply, all the talk of a bumper year (in terms of the industry) and whether it was the truth or just widespread perception, and if so would it be good or bad for tourism in the region? 

Well since the start of 2009, with the crash in the value of the pound in relation to the Euro, which has almost reached parity, there have been many stories that people were changing their holiday habits from European breaks to the UK.

At South West Tourism we were optimistic and thought maybe these conditions would favour our region, in what would otherwise be a difficult year given the deepening recession. We could see real potential for a bumper year and so we monitored the evidence, data and research. However, we have not seen any noticeable trends to support the assumption. Even though there are many individual businesses doing well, the overall picture has been pretty flat.  We were also increasingly concerned and worried that the stories of a bumper year were appearing in most of the media and I was constantly told that "tourism will be fine, you are going to have a bumper year" - but where was the evidence?  

You may well be thinking what's the problem?  Well let's cast our minds back to the last time there was talk of a bumper year - 1999, year of the solar eclipse. We all know the result of unsubstantiated rumours and stories getting out of control: visitor numbers were underwhelming as the perception among potential late bookers, was that the region was already fully booked. That is why we undertook detailed consumer research in April this year to establish the facts.

The results have told us that although we will receive more new customers they will, if we are lucky, just replace the business lost as our existing customers cut back or are unable or unwilling to holiday at all this year.

Equally worrying is those that will come to the South West are intending to cut back on their spending on shopping and eating out, which will impact on other sectors of the local economy. That is why we have been "saying it as it is" and realistic.

Firstly, as a result of this we do not deter any potential customers who might otherwise feel we are full and therefore not think of booking a break or holiday in our wonderful region. Secondly, it will ensure the industry is made fully aware of the facts and to counter any potential complacency. In addition, it will also help the industry to see that 2009 should be used to prepare for harder times ahead in 2010 and 2011 when unemployment will be higher, the Euro may weaken and consumer confidence may be lower. All of this will make trading conditions harder for tourism in the South West.

Tourism has been given a break that many other sectors would have loved to have had, i.e. more than 12 months' warning of more challenging times ahead and I am sure those in the financial services, the motor industry and the construction sectors would have loved the chance to have been able to have planned adjustments rather than all too often having to take panic measures in response to a catastrophic reduction in sales.

So what should we do?  Well firstly let's make the most of 2009 by promoting the region and its destinations to the best of our abilities.

Businesses can increase their sales efforts, decide how value can be added to increase trade and consider tactical pricing and packaging etc without having to resort to discounting.

Other ideas and suggestions for businesses include:

• Use direct mail marketing to remind past customers on the quality of the holiday break and remind customers how much they enjoyed their holiday
  
• Consider providing an all inclusive price/package
  
• Offer free or discount attraction tickets for early bookers, as well as other "early booker" incentives
  
• Continue to use and promote the use of local food and drink, but add lower price and fixed price meals on the menu whist maintaining margins
  
• Continue with staff training to ensure staff have the right skills, (particularly the welcome and customer service skills) and ensure front line staff are aware of local attractions (free and paid) and other activities customers can do in the local area for visitors
  
• Consider added value services; (e.g. free local guided walks, free cycle, surf or boogie board hire etc).
  
• Have details of more localised and reliable weather forecast website links on businesses' own websites and post a print-out of the more localised forecast on the notice board, breakfast table or even in each bedroom, cottage, apartment etc of holiday accommodation
  
• Have information and suggestions ready for guests when the weather is not sunny.

Finally, and most importantly, make the most effective use of the Internet as this is the first recession since the Internet has become such a dominant factor in consumers researching and booking habits.

Every business should ensure their website is up to date, contains information on many free activities nearby and shows how their potential customers can have a great holiday, a quality experience and at a price they will like. Show availability so that people don't assume that you're fully booked.

If you're not already a member of your local DMO (Destination Management Organisation) then get in touch with them. They're planning initiatives to help support your business over these coming months.

In conclusion, given the current recession and the wise words from the Bank of England that we are in uncharted waters, we do need realism, not optimism and certainly not pessimism. We will all need to keep on our toes and respond to counter the threats and grasp the opportunities that will be there.

In terms of our consumer facing communications myself and the team at South West Tourism will remain positive and send out the message that the South West is a wonderful region to visit with many experiences on offer; it is booking up fast so book early to avoid disappointment. Two very different messages, one for the industry (from the position report) and one for the consumer. However, it is important that the industry are clear about the facts about what could potentially happen rather than given no preparation at all. 

However, we have had great weather over the half term and bank holiday, the Met Office are still predicting a good summer and this should set us up to make the most out of the current interest in the South West this summer.

Malcolm Bell

Director of South West Tourism

Click here to view the State of Tourism report.

Please leave a comment below.

Date added: Thursday 4th June 2009
Latest updated: Thursday 8th March 2012