South West Tourism has produced a Position Report, containing current market conditions, key predictions for 2009 and proposed actions for the tourism industry to help during the current recession.
The aim of the report is to inform, stimulate thinking and prompt actions for the various possible scenarios that might pan out this year, including how you can maximise your businesses potential.
To read the full report including suggested ideas and actions for tourism businesses (page 27) click here.
Please leave your comments on this report at the bottom of this page or vote in our online poll in the sidebar on the right.
Weather (and weather forecasts)
Consumer Confidence
Exchange Rates
Competitors Response
Perception of UK Holidays as Expensive
And potentially Swine Flu
Scenario 1 Bumper Year (Probability 5%) resulting in visitor numbers being up 10 - 20% on 2008 and visitor spend up by 0 - 5% on last year
Scenario 2 - A Good Case - A possibility (20% probability) resulting in visitor numbers being up 5 - 15% on 2008 but visitor spend being the same as last year
Scenario 3 - Predicted Case - A probability (55% probability) resulting in visitor numbers being down 3 - 8 % on 2008 and visitor spend down by 10 - 20% on last year
Scenario 4 - Worse Case - A possibility (20% probability) resulting in visitor numbers down 15-20% on 2008 and visitor spend down by 15 - 30% on last year
"Whilst there is still the potential for 2009 to be a bumper year in terms of visitor numbers it is very unlikely to be a bumper year in terms of visitor spend. The most likely outcome for the region will be a ‘patchy year', with some sectors performing well or better and some lower or even poorly.
2009 will be a challenging year and although there are reasons to be optimistic, rather than being overly pessimistic, these are unknown waters. The challenge for the industry will be the avoidance of complacency, the ability to flex and innovate and the need to sell on the value of the offering, not to discount but undertake tactical pricing and sell-sell-sell."
Date added: Friday 15th May 2009
Latest updated: Thursday 8th March 2012
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Comments
Anonymous
Thank you Malcolm for your honest and realistic view of things in tourism. Helpful, and appreciated. Realism always necessary if any business is to succeed.
Comment made: Monday 8th June 2009
Elaine and Dick Green, Green self catering cottages Devon
We are slightly up on last year and business is still coming in. Repeat bookings are great and we have had more customers than ever from abroad. People are looking for quality as well as price, good friendly service and positive outlook all help. Promoting our 'green' credentials has helped encourage many customers. I would like to see more referrals to our website from SWT though - I get more referrals from some free sites and certainly less expensive ones ! so work on the internet please to help us all.
Comment made: Monday 8th June 2009
Anonymous
Whatever you have to say there will be a difference comment from someone experiencing exactly the opposite; that is the nature of tourism in the SW and always has been - why spend money trying to find that out. Any available funds would be far better spent selling the SW to the rest of GB and worldwide.What I resent is you and others billing themselves 'head of tourism' or 'tourism chief'. As we currently (in Cornwall particularly) have no effective public sector organisation doing anything substantive for us we all have to market ourselves - again what we have always done.
Comment made: Monday 8th June 2009
Mike Godwin, King Arthurs Halls Tintagel
The forecast for tourism numbers is like the weather forecast... rain sunny periods, chance of hail,brightening up for a while later. All eventualities covered! As every year, different sectors are doing better than others, and it is not rocket science to predict a lesser spend, but increased volume at the lower end of the market
Comment made: Thursday 28th May 2009
David Ensor, Chiltern Lodge Bed and Breakfast
We are in Worth Matravers (near Swanage.)In all apsects our business is about the same as last year and last year was a good year.No evidence of any downturn yet.
Comment made: Wednesday 27th May 2009
Anonymous
Nothing of practical value, just broad generalisations. S W Tourism should look to its own performance. VoT 2007 not issued until 2Q 2009, out of date on issue.Many comments on damage done by poor weather forecasts and negative media reports and then Malcolm Bell does exactly that himself.
Comment made: Wednesday 27th May 2009
Martin Wickham, Marsdens Cottage Holidays
Interesting information - intelligence is always useful. Of course the critical thing is how we use it. I'd like to see what actions these predictations are now stimulating.
Comment made: Thursday 21st May 2009
Anonymous
Camping in dorset is up on 2008 to date. Bookings are up for the summer, despite the last two wet summers.In the past two wet summers would have meant a quiet summer to follow, but due to all the factors in our favour, recession, foreign exchange, airport strikes, we are looking to another year with increased turnover. We wish all a hot and dry summer. Positive thoughts, the oak was out befor the ash.
Comment made: Wednesday 20th May 2009
Robin Barker, Services for Tourism Ltd
It is such a breath of fresh air in receiving something that industry will appreciate and help in their planning. The conclusions are absolutely in line with all the anecdotal evidence I have encountered and help to refute the somewhat naive assumption promulgated from some parts of government that just because there is a favourable exchange rate everyone will flock to the South West and spend their hard earned £££s. That assumption has been used as an excuse for lack of tourism investment by government, and worryingly as a reason for some businesses to ‘turn off’ the marketing tap and expect the visitors to magically turn up.Well done to you and team.
Comment made: Tuesday 19th May 2009
Leza Wilson, Helsbury Park
I get the feeling from our guests that they expect rain and if the sun shines it's a bonus. Our repeat business is going up and up so the last two soggy years haven't put folk off any way. Why don't we stop focussing on the one thing none of us can influence and really talk up all the fantastic selling points our region has to offer? More productive surely! Any way our moto is there's no such thing as bad weather just inappropriate clothing!
Comment made: Tuesday 19th May 2009
Robert Denney, Beechcroft Place
I have read the report and i disagree.We are in East Dorset on the coast and next to the New Forest.Unlike the far south west we are just 90 minutes from west london,therefore we are fully booked until the end of october. Febuary revenue was the same a July.We are now up to £20,000 per room which is well above average for a B&B.Overall people are thinking about the long drive to Cornwall and Devon,but going for the 90 minute journey to Dorset in this recession it appears to save money and time.We have just put prices up a further 20% and nobody seems to worry due to fuel saving or something!!Hope this helps
Comment made: Tuesday 19th May 2009
Jennifer Smith, Aspects Holidays
Realism rather than incorrect paper hype I believe is far more helpful amd I feel this is just the message Malcolm Bell has conveyed. There is a clear message though that camping and caravan sites are doing better than many of the other businesses.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
Our experience is very positive to date with a higher proportion of baby boomer/senior couples and overseas visitors - especially from Germany. Interestingly it is direct business coming via the web rather than through local agents.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
As an ex customer of South West Tourism my comment would be, we need the sun to shine and if S.W.T are to prosper and help small accommodation suppliers to prosper they need to look at their cost to us and talk tourism up
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Suzette Hibbert
It may be we should be concentrating on getting those who have Euros to spend over here rather than trying to keep our sterling earners over here who have nothing to spend!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
Pleased to see some realistic commentary on the way things are rather than the press grabbing headlines conjured up by the journalists. I'm fed up of reading their predictions based on nothing but text book economics!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
For someone who represents Tourism in the South West I find Mr Bell's comments within the media VERY DISAPPOINTING to put such a black cloud over previous positive holiday reports. I am sure if he was to represent holiday parks and camping as well...!!! his report would be very different and he would have something more POSITIVE to say about the industry he is supposed to be representing..!!!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
I was a little suprised to hear Malcolms referal to the Eclipse on BBC Breakfast.I consider any predictions to be dangerous to the industry. None of us have a crystal ball and therefore we should only deal with the past and present.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
Why or why is South West Tourism set on being negative and talking down the summer opportunities. Surely this money would be better spent on something more helpful to the industry than spending time dong TV interviews being so negative (spotlight BBC 14th May)
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
This is the Mount Haven Hotel in Marazion. Our experience is that February and March were down on last year (which was bumper for us) but a lot of that was weather and the timing of Easter we believe. April was our busiest on record and May is almost fully booked with just an odd day here and there with availability. June is filling up rapidly and July and August filling up earlier than usual. There are a lot more American guests coming this year and Germany is still proving our best overseas clients. We are very positive for the season but the shoulder months are still are unknown quantity! Spending in the restaurant is good but local trade for lunches is down. Not a lot of sales on artwork and not so much spend on therapies. I think we will have a great season in Cornwall!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Leon Butler, Lanscombe House Hotel
Our view is that the success of the season will be determined by the weather - we can but hope.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
A.R.Taylor., Dean Court, St Ives.
A very poor article from the professional team.It does not tell the people on the ground anything they do not already know.It IS going to be a very difficult year.We are now half way through May and unless the sun shines until christmas we will not recover the ground already lost.Mr Bell changes his opinion almost as quickly as the weather. At least someone has realised that unless the weather is kind to us, we are in for tight times. A fact that some forgot in their earlier predictions !!!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Chris Churm, Churm Financial Management
What a waste of time and money !!Was any of this predicted in your 17yr plan ?I wish that we all had the benefit of hypotheticy and a pension... actually not !!Try cutting expenses, jobs.... and then come back to the people at the coalface. . .Sooner rather than dreekley......
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
P.J. Bull & Hazelmary Bull, {Mrs.}, Chymorvah House.
Dear Mr. Bell,Having seen your t.v. interview and having read this article, we are relieved to hear someone telling it like it is. We are sick of people talking-up a forthcoming season to we who can see through the spin. Whilst it's important to give a positive picture to prospective guests, they are still at home and not listening to anything you are saying and are not in danger of being influenced by it one way or another. We who are in the region need the truth and can very quickly see through waffle and spin, so the experts should save it for the visitors who by definition {i.e. they're called `visitors'!} are not in the region. Thank you for your time Mr. Bell. We have always respected you and your work ever since you first went to work for the West Country Tourist Board, but after this our respect has gone up a notch!Yours sincerely,Hazelmary Bull.-------------- p.p. Pete and Hazelmary Bull, {Mrs.}
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
Although SWTourism started off very upbeat about the coming season the reality on the ground has been frighteningly bad.so far and guests booking for the summer are almost nonexistant. Perhaps luxury/boutique guest houses or the low budget ones are doing better.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Bryan Cath, West Country Walks
I hear what you say but there is an age bracket and wealth bracket that is yet to notice the effect of the downturn in real terms. I agree that they will be more careful with their money from a cautious point of view, but I think that they will still come on holiday. This sector of the population is probably the main visitor to the SW. We have just had our walking festival in North Devon and Exmoor and the participants numbers were up by 21% on 2008 which in itself was up 48% on 2007, making it tricky to get an increase on such an already high figure. I also agree that if we get good weather this year then we have a good chance of a good year and we do need to make sure that the weather forecasts are not so negative and incorrect as this does effect whether daytrippers come. I do think that quality of the holiday experience is essential if we are to attract back those who would normally go abroad. People are looking for things to do and then where to stay to do that activity. So packages are a good way for accommodation providers to attract people and this is proved quite clearly in this area by those who are putting themselves out to create attractive packages, that they as proprietors also have an interest in. We have got to be wary of being negative or downhearted within the trade. Yes we are shockers for uptalking how well we are doing, but that is not a bad thing from the visitors point of view. Get your web sites working flat out on the search engines by making sure they are saying what you provide with careful optimising. This is what I do for many tourism businesses and it does work without costing a lot of money. Be positive!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
Compared to this quarter last year we are 30% down but future bookings as from end of may are far more promising than they were at this time last year. Commercial visitors have almost ceased to make contact during the last 5 weeks.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
I think Mr. Bell is being rather optimistic even in his worst case scenario.My experience to date is that from November 2008 business is down 30-40% and there is a dearth of advance bookings for the summer as potential tourists wait to see how safe their own jobs are before booking a break.Expecting tourists from abroad to make up the shortfall is living in cloud cuckoo land when they are also experiencing a European-wide recession.A key indicator of accommodation industry health must be the number of B & Bs/small hotels etc that are closed because they've gone out of business. Perhaps SWT should put that question (how many closures in your locality) in their next survey.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
January to March was up by 50% on last year even though Easter was in April. We have seen an increase in longer stays for the summer and more European booking already this year.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Amanda Willats, Harrabeer Country House
It looks as though your guess is as good as mine or anyone elses then!!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
your article just adds to the talking down the situation bandwaggon. our bookings so far this year are up on 2007 and we thought that was good and visitor spend on farm produce is also up so we are looking at our best year so far.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Anonymous
I hope that you didn't spend too much money reaching conclusions that we already know about or could have had a guess at.
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
Mr S Anthony, Ashwood Grange
We should'nt rely on the weather to attract visitors to the area, there should be far more things to see and do in a place that relies on tourism. People that come here don't like to see a place that is in desperate need of a revamp, as a whole!!
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
brian lynn, cosycorner
business should up sell quality, rather than offering discounts, new visitors should be impressed , recieving real value for their £, this will ensure repeat visitor for next season. the weather for the last two years has impacted on the number of visitors, we should have an improvement according to the latest summer forcasts.finally can we avoid any negative press releasee please
Comment made: Monday 18th May 2009
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