Ask the expert

After last summer’s poor weather and with the current economic turbulence do you have any forecasts on the public's intentions in terms of holiday plans in 2009?

Answered by our Expert: Malcolm Bell - Director of South West Tourism

Published: March 2009 

There are reasons for us to be optimistic in regards to the public's holiday intentions in 2009. The current strength of the EURO and the US Dollar makes it a lot more expensive for Brits to holiday in the USA and Europe. Non Euro-zone destinations are very attractive for British holidaymakers but are oversubscribed and there will be very few bargains to be had in these areas in 2009. A weak pound also makes it far more attractive for overseas visitors to come to the UK and the South West.

Research indicates that the average number of domestic holidays and breaks is to rise above 2008 levels with British people seeing the UK as the number one destination in terms of value. Brits regard their holidays as a necessity not a luxury, in fact, to most people taking a holiday is second in priority only to repaying loans. With this in mind it's expected that around 20% of UK residents who took a holiday abroad in 2008 plan to take their holidays in the UK this year. Forecasts suggest that the economic downturn will influence domestic tourists to drop short breaks in London and overseas, and day trips and short breaks outside London will be least affected, good news for the South West.
 
There are some potential hazards however, we predict that late booking will be a strong theme in 2009 with customers adopting a ‘wait and watch' approach and not planning too far ahead, let alone booking early.
 
Rising unemployment and fear of unemployment may cause Brits to be increasingly conscious of spending. Low interest rates for savers are affecting the confidence and spending ability of the older and senior markets. Customers who do holiday in the South West will be actively seeking out value for money across all sectors and quality bands with reduced spending on food, drink and retail particularly likely.

In conclusion, 2009 will be a challenging year and although there are reasons to be optimistic rather than pessimistic these are unknown waters and the challenge will be avoiding complacency and being flexible and innovative. It's vital not to discount but to promote the value of what you're offering.